Scenario-based portfolio intelligence
What if…World War 3 begins in June
Scenario Edge shows how different future events could affect your portfolio, with evidence-grounded projections, confidence scoring, and per-asset analysis backed by our evaluation metrics.
Portfolio value
$44,651.75
12M projected
$34,471.15
-22.8%
Scenario: “World War 3 begins in June”
3,200+
Scenarios run
via ScenarioEdge engine
1,500+
Portfolios stress-tested
+1,496
NASDAQ
LSE
ASX
HKEX3,300+
Assets across major exchanges
94%
Avg. confidence score
How it works
Three steps to scenario clarity
Portfolio
Demo Holdings
NVDA
NVIDIA
BHP
BHP Group
BTC
Bitcoin
Add your holdings
Build your portfolio with stocks, ETFs, and crypto from ASX, NASDAQ, and global exchanges.
Scenario
The Fed cuts rates aggressively in 2027
Adjust the macro path and stress test your portfolio against it.
Set a scenario
Describe a hypothetical macro event and adjust assumptions like inflation, rates, and growth.
Projected impact
Scenario lift across horizons
6M
+3.2%
12M
+8.4%
24M
+13.7%
Review projected impact
See detailed per-holding analysis with projected prices, rationale, and risk factors at 6, 12, and 24 months.
Portfolio snapshot
See exactly how your holdings respond to macro events
Real portfolio data, per-asset reasoning, and scenario-specific projections, all in one view.
Portfolio Value
$44,651.75
Holdings
$2,275.00
+1.24%
$828.00
+3.85%
$36,487.50
-0.42%
$1,206.25
-1.15%
$3,855.00
+0.78%
“Fed cuts rates sharply in Q1 2027”
$48,420.12
+8.44%
12m projected
“Oil spikes above $150 per barrel”
$42,062.00
-5.80%
12m projected
“AI infrastructure spending doubles”
$50,318.00
+12.70%
12m projected
Detailed analysis
Per-holding projections with reasoning
Every asset gets a detailed analysis including projected prices, impact drivers, sensitivity mapping, and plain-English explanations.
NVDA
NVIDIA
NVIDIA is the primary beneficiary of accelerating AI infrastructure spend. Increased GPU demand from hyperscalers directly drives revenue.
6m
+12.4%
12m
+24.8%
24m
+38.2%
BHP
BHP Group
Commodity demand faces headwinds from slowing China growth and global trade uncertainty, pressuring iron ore pricing.
6m
-5.2%
12m
-8.7%
24m
-6.1%
BTC
Bitcoin
Lower rates increase liquidity and reduce opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, historically bullish for Bitcoin.
6m
+8.5%
12m
+15.2%
24m
+22.8%
Why Scenario Edge
Evidence-backed analysis you can trust
Stress testing
See how holdings react to macro events.
Stress testing
See how holdings react to macro events.
Event exposure
Map sensitivity to rates, inflation & geopolitics.
Per-holding reasoning
Why each holding moves under a scenario.
Confidence scoring
Projections scored by evidence strength.
Sensitivity ratings
See which holdings are most exposed.
Transparent methods
Full visibility into assumptions & sources.
Analysis pipeline
From macro event to portfolio impact
Any macro scenario flows through our analysis engine to produce specific, evidence-backed impact scores for every holding you own.
Recession in 2027
Oil spikes above $150
China-Taiwan conflict
Fed cuts rates sharply
AI infrastructure boom
Evaluation metrics
Built on measurable, transparent scoring
Every projection comes with evaluation metrics that tell you exactly how reliable it is. Our scoring models assess evidence quality, compute confidence from multiple factors, and flag uncertainty so you can trust the analysis or know when to be cautious.
Evidence strength scoring
Every source is classified into three tiers: Tier 1 (SEC filings, central bank data, official statistics), Tier 2 (Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, and other major financial outlets), and Tier 3 (general research). Evidence strength is computed from the mix of sources backing each projection.
A projection grounded in two or more Tier 1 sources earns a 'high' evidence rating, giving you clear signal on how well-supported each call is.
Multi-factor confidence model
Confidence is computed from evidence quality, scenario specificity, projection magnitude, and asset class. Extreme projections and high-volatility asset classes are penalized to prevent overconfidence.
The scoring model flags when projections exceed realistic thresholds and downgrades confidence automatically. You never see false certainty.
Scenario sensitivity analysis
Each asset's sensitivity to the scenario is calculated from its projected price movements across multiple time horizons. Assets with larger absolute moves receive 'high' sensitivity ratings, surfacing the holdings most affected.
Sensitivity is derived from 6-month and 12-month delta percentages, distinguishing between genuinely scenario-exposed assets and those with marginal impact.
Live evidence pipeline
Before any projection is made, the engine gathers real-time evidence from the web: financial filings, government data releases, and market analysis. This evidence grounds every claim and provides traceable citations.
The pipeline normalizes your scenario into searchable components, gathers asset-specific and macro evidence, then feeds it into the analysis model with full context.
Direction & impact derivation
Directional calls (positive, neutral, negative) and impact labels are computed algorithmically from projected returns across all horizons, not from subjective model opinion. This ensures internal consistency between the numbers and the labels.
An asset showing an average positive delta above 3% across horizons is classified as 'positive'; below -3% as 'negative'. Impact strength is cross-referenced with sensitivity to produce labels like 'strong positive' or 'moderate negative'.
Probability-aware reasoning
The model uses probability ranges instead of point estimates, distinguishes between directly evidenced and inferred claims, and always includes thesis invalidation triggers so you know what would need to happen for the projection to be wrong.
Methodology notes, risk flags, and model caveats are included in every analysis so you can assess the limitations alongside the projections.
Why you can trust the results
Rigorous evaluation at every step of the pipeline
Scenario Edge doesn't just generate projections. It evaluates them. Every analysis passes through a multi-stage pipeline that gathers evidence, scores source quality, computes confidence from measurable factors, and cross-validates directional calls against the underlying numbers.
The result is an analysis you can interrogate: you can see the evidence behind each call, understand why confidence is high or low, and know exactly what would invalidate the thesis. No black boxes, no false certainty.
Three-tier source classification
SEC filings & central banks → major financial news → general research
Algorithmic confidence scoring
Evidence quality + scenario specificity + magnitude checks
Built-in safeguards
Extreme projections are penalized, crypto gets additional scrutiny, and every thesis includes invalidation criteria
Example scenarios
Test against real-world events
See how macro events could shape your portfolio
Add your holdings, pick a scenario, and get evidence-grounded projections with confidence scores, source citations, and company-by-company explanations you can trust.
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