How it works
Turn portfolio questions into scenario analysis
Test how future events may affect your holdings using scenario-based portfolio analysis with projected outcomes, evidence-grounded reasoning, and per-asset breakdowns.
Scenario
“The Fed cuts rates aggressively in 2027”
Holdings
5 assets
12m Projected
$48,420
High Confidence
Step by step
From portfolio to projected impact in four steps
Build your portfolio, describe a scenario, refine your assumptions, and review the projected impact on every holding.
Add your holdings
Search and select stocks, ETFs, or crypto from ASX, NASDAQ, and global exchanges. Enter your quantities to see current prices, portfolio value, and allocation weights.
Portfolio Value
$44,651.75
$2,275.00
+1.24%
$828.00
+3.85%
$36,487.50
-0.42%
$1,206.25
-1.15%
$3,855.00
+0.78%
Describe your scenario
Trump is impeached by the end of 2026
Example scenarios
Enter a scenario
Describe a future event or market condition in plain language. The engine interprets your scenario and maps it to the macro channels that would affect your holdings.
- Geopolitical events
- Monetary policy changes
- Commodity price shocks
- Sector-specific disruptions
Adjust assumptions
Refine the analysis with macro assumptions. Set expected levels for inflation, interest rates, GDP growth, unemployment, and commodity prices to make the scenario more specific to your outlook.
Default values are pre-filled based on current market consensus. Adjust any parameter to test alternative conditions.
Macro Assumptions
Analysis style
Portfolio Impact
$48,420
+8.4%
Per-holding impact
Review projected impact
The engine analyzes each holding and your total portfolio, producing projected values at 6, 12, and 24 months, along with confidence scores, key drivers, per-company explanations, and upside/downside ranges.
- Portfolio-level summary with projected values
- Per-holding impact with reasoning
- Confidence and evidence strength scores
- Key risk factors and watch items
Analysis framework
What the analysis evaluates
Each scenario is mapped across multiple dimensions to assess how macro forces, sector dynamics, and company-specific factors interact under the conditions you describe.
Macro conditions
Interest rates, inflation, GDP growth, and monetary policy shifts that shape broad market direction.
Sector sensitivity
How each sector responds to the scenario, from technology and energy to financials and healthcare.
Company fundamentals
Revenue exposure, margin structure, balance sheet strength, and competitive positioning of each holding.
Commodity & rates exposure
Direct and indirect sensitivity to oil, metals, currencies, and interest rate movements.
Regulation & policy
Fiscal policy changes, trade restrictions, sanctions, and sector-specific regulatory risk.
Market sentiment
Risk appetite, liquidity conditions, capital flows, and behavioral dynamics that influence pricing.
Crypto liquidity & risk appetite
On-chain metrics, liquidity conditions, institutional flows, and correlation to risk-on/risk-off cycles.
Output
What you get back
Every scenario run produces a comprehensive analysis with portfolio-level summaries, per-holding breakdowns, and evidence you can trace.
Portfolio Impact
+8.4%
$48,420 projected
Confidence
High
Strong evidence base
Evidence
12 sources
8 Tier 1, 4 Tier 2
Portfolio projection
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp.
Rate cuts reduce cost of capital for AI infrastructure investment. Hyperscaler GPU demand accelerates as financing conditions improve, directly benefiting NVIDIA's data center revenue.
6m
+12.4%
12m
+24.8%
24m
+38.2%
Evidence sources
12 sources citedPortfolio-level impact summary
Total projected value, return %, and directional impact across all holdings.
Per-holding analysis
Individual projections with reasoning, key drivers, and risk factors for each asset.
Scenario explanation
Plain-English breakdown of first and second-order effects of the described scenario.
Confidence indicators
Multi-factor confidence and evidence strength scores computed from the source quality.
Evidence-backed reasoning
Traceable citations from tiered sources including filings, official data, and financial news.
Key risks & watch items
Thesis invalidation triggers, risk flags, and factors that could change the outlook.
Example scenarios
Scenarios investors are testing
From rate cuts to recessions, explore the macro events that matter most to your portfolio.
“Recession in 2027”
Explore how a broad economic contraction could affect equities, commodities, and crypto across your portfolio.
“Fed cuts rates faster than expected”
See which holdings benefit most from aggressive monetary easing and lower borrowing costs.
“China demand weakens sharply”
Assess exposure to Chinese growth through commodity producers, exporters, and supply-chain-dependent companies.
“AI capex accelerates”
Identify which holdings benefit from a surge in AI infrastructure spending by hyperscalers and enterprises.
“Oil spikes due to geopolitical conflict”
Understand energy exposure and second-order impacts on transportation, manufacturing, and consumer spending.
“US inflation returns to target”
Evaluate the portfolio impact of price stability, from rate-sensitive growth stocks to yield-oriented positions.
Use cases
Why investors use Scenario Edge
Stress test holdings
Map macro exposure
Compare outcomes
Spot concentration risk
Find sensitive assets
Explore before acting
Interpreting results
How to read your scenario analysis
Scenario Edge is designed to improve your understanding of portfolio risk, not to predict the future with certainty. The outputs are hypothetical estimates based on the scenario you describe and the assumptions you provide.
Use the projections as a framework for thinking about how macro events could affect your holdings. Pay attention to confidence scores, evidence strength, and sensitivity ratings. They tell you how much weight to give each projection.
Hypothetical scenario estimates
All projections are hypothetical. They represent one possible outcome under the specific conditions you describe, not a forecast.
Not investment advice
Scenario Edge is an analytical tool for educational purposes. Outputs should not be treated as buy, sell, or hold recommendations.
Assumptions shape outcomes
Results depend on the scenario description, macro assumptions, and available market data. Changing inputs will produce different projections.
Confidence varies by scenario
Well-defined scenarios with established economic channels produce higher-confidence results. Unprecedented or speculative scenarios may have lower confidence.
Designed for understanding
The goal is to help you think through how events could affect your portfolio, improving awareness and informing your own research process.
See how your portfolio responds to what's next
Add your holdings, describe a scenario, and get projected outcomes with confidence scores, evidence citations, and per-asset explanations.