Scenario Library
What happens to your portfolio if…
Explore in-depth scenario analyses covering geopolitical events, economic shocks, and market disruptions. Each scenario breaks down the transmission channels, sector impacts, and portfolio implications so you can stress-test your holdings before it happens.
What happens to my portfolio if World War 3-style global conflict erupts?
This scenario models a multi-region war involving major powers, with oil above $140, fractured trade flows, persistent market volatility and a global recession. On this portfolio run, the result is a severe drawdown led by long-duration technology, cyclical exposure and credit-sensitive financials, while energy and selected defensives hold up relatively better.
What happens to my portfolio if the US reverses all EV mandates and reinstates fossil fuel subsidies?
This scenario explores what could happen if US policy swings decisively back toward fossil fuels and away from electrification mandates. The analysis focuses on how that shift may ripple through equity styles, transition-linked commodities, crypto sentiment, and portfolio-level drawdowns over the next 12 months.
What happens to my portfolio if a Category 5 hurricane makes direct landfall on New York City?
This scenario looks at how a direct Category 5 hurricane strike on New York City could ripple through markets, valuations, and portfolio holdings over the next 12 months. The main transmission is not just physical damage, but a broader risk-off shock driven by market disruption, higher risk premia, logistics friction, and temporary hits to activity in one of the world's key financial centers.
What happens to my portfolio if China invades Taiwan and chip exports stop?
This scenario models a severe geopolitical shock in which China takes control of Taiwan, TSMC supply to the US and allies is cut off, and sweeping sanctions freeze trade and financial flows. The analysis explores how a global chip famine, recessionary pressure, and rapid US-China decoupling could ripple through major holdings, sectors, and portfolio outcomes.
What happens to my portfolio if the Strait of Hormuz closes?
A closure of the Strait of Hormuz would be a classic geopolitical supply shock: oil and LNG flows seize up, inflation jumps, growth contracts, and volatility rises sharply. This page shows how that mix of higher energy costs, tighter financial conditions, and risk-off sentiment can flow through to portfolio holdings over the next 12 months.
What happens to my portfolio if North Korea launches a sudden attack against South Korea?
This scenario models a sharp military escalation on the Korean peninsula, with immediate spillovers into global equities, semiconductors, currencies, commodities and shipping. It highlights how a regional conflict can quickly become a global portfolio shock through risk aversion, supply-chain disruption and higher energy costs.
What happens to my portfolio if NVIDIA drops 30% after a broader US AI chip export ban to China?
This scenario models a sharp regulatory shock in semiconductors after the United States expands AI chip export restrictions to China, including previously compliant NVIDIA products. The analysis looks at how that shock could ripple through mega-cap tech, hyperscaler capex, semiconductors, defensives, and your portfolio over the next 12 months.
What happens to my portfolio if Iran-Israel war escalates into a regional conflict across the Middle East?
This scenario explores how a broader Middle East conflict could ripple through markets via higher geopolitical risk, supply-chain stress and a renewed premium on energy and hard assets. It shows how those macro pressures may affect a diversified portfolio over the next 12 months, including which holdings appear most vulnerable and which may prove relatively resilient.
What happens to my portfolio if New York is struck by a nuclear warhead in June 2026?
This scenario models an extreme geopolitical shock in which a nuclear warhead hits New York in June 2026 and markets rapidly reprice global risk. On this page, we examine how that shock could transmit through liquidity, sentiment, volatility, and crypto-specific positioning to affect a 12-month portfolio outcome.
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