What happens to my portfolio if the US reverses all EV mandates and reinstates fossil fuel subsidies?

BTC

Bitcoin

-5%

The key point is that the scenario overlay trims Bitcoin's 12-month price target to $67,417.70 from the current $70,966.00, with a 6-month target of $65,288.72, while the market-relative framework still shows no fundamental cash-flow anchor and an immaterial $0.35 fair value. The transmission is almost entirely through positioning: a fossil-fuel-policy reversal favors old-economy/value leadership and reduces marginal demand for non-yielding, high-beta alternatives, echoing the 2021-2022 value/energy rotation when crypto underperformed despite improving institutional infrastructure. Downside is moderated versus smaller tokens because ETF and CME market structure provides a stronger liquidity base, but with WACC rising to 10.6% from 10.3%, the scenario still implies a modest de-rating via sentiment and relative risk appetite rather than protocol fundamentals.

ETH

Ethereum

-8%

Ethereum screens as more exposed than Bitcoin: the scenario cuts the 12-month price target to $2,017.89 from $2,193.36, with 6-month and 24-month targets of $1,930.16 and $2,105.63, while the market-relative fair value remains an immaterial $0.35. The transmission channel is a de-rating of innovation and platform optionality as policy support shifts away from transition-tech ecosystems, which matters more for ETH because its valuation is tied to expectations for on-chain growth and institutional adoption; that is consistent with the 2022 analogue when smart-contract tokens derated more than BTC during value/energy leadership. Staking yield softens the move, but the higher scenario WACC of 10.7% versus 10.3% and ETH's higher beta mean sentiment compression should dominate.

XRP

XRP

-8%

XRP's scenario is primarily a sentiment and breadth story, with the 12-month target slipping to $1.22 from $1.33 and the 6-month target at $1.16, while fair value remains $0.35, or 73.7% below spot. The transmission channel is broad crypto de-risking rather than any direct effect on payments utility: a fossil-fuel-led value rotation narrows speculative market breadth, and historically altcoins have underperformed BTC in that setup, as seen in the 2022 macro de-risking/value rotation analogue. With scenario WACC moving to 10.7% from 10.3% and a smaller institutional moat than Bitcoin, XRP has less downside protection even though protocol roadmap progress provides a partial cushion.

NVDA

NVIDIA Corporation

-24%

The central quantitative takeaway is that NVIDIA's scenario fair value falls to $106.31 from a base $113.56, versus a current price of $188.63, implying 43.6% downside even though the scenario only nudges WACC to 9.5% from 9.0%. That pressure is mainly multiple-driven: at 38.2x P/E and a 2.1% FCF yield, NVDA is exposed to long-duration growth compression in a value/energy rotation, similar to the 2022 analogue, while cheaper fossil-fuel power is only a second-order positive for data-center economics and does not offset derating risk. The 12-month scenario price target of $143.05, with $155.59 at 6 months, reflects resilient AI demand and very strong margins but a lower market willingness to capitalize distant cash flows.

BHP

BHP Group

-48%

BHP is hit through the demand-expectation channel: scenario fair value drops to $7.94 from $9.73 versus a current price of $54.02, and the 12-month scenario target falls to $27.94, reflecting a sharp de-rating of long-dated copper optionality. The policy reversal lowers expected EV penetration and weakens the market's willingness to capitalize transition-metal scarcity, a setup analogous to 2015-2016 commodity demand downgrades and later periods when copper equities derated relative to diversified miners. BHP's 43.9% operating margin and balance-sheet resilience help on fundamentals, but the scenario WACC rises to 11.5% from 11.1% and the market's strategic rerating case around copper becomes less compelling.

AAPL

Apple

-53%

Apple's setup is primarily one of valuation sensitivity: the scenario framework keeps fair value at an immaterial $0.35 versus a $260.48 stock price, while the scenario price targets step down to $168.78 at 6 months and $121.96 at 12 months. The transmission channel is 2022-style quality-tech multiple compression as capital rotates toward value and energy; cheaper fuel modestly helps logistics and consumer disposable income, but that operating benefit is small relative to the risk of de-rating a stock on 35.0x P/E, 26.2x EV/EBITDA, and a 2.6% FCF yield. With WACC increasing to 16.3% from 15.9%, the market is likely to pay less for Apple's duration even though the business remains operationally resilient.

AMZN

Amazon

-31%

Amazon's scenario fair value slips to $100.36 from $105.45 versus a current price of $238.38, and the 12-month scenario target of $164.13 reflects a stock that remains highly exposed to duration compression. At 33.3x P/E and just a 0.5% FCF yield, AMZN is especially vulnerable to a growth-to-value rotation, even if lower fuel prices slightly help retail margins, consumer spending, and over time AWS power costs; that mirrors the 2022 analogue when heavy-investment platforms de-rated despite solid operations. The scenario WACC rises to 11.0% from 10.5%, and with capex guidance around $200,000, investors are likely to discount future cash flows more aggressively than the modest operating tailwinds justify.

CBA

Commonwealth Bank of Australia

-31%

CBA is one of the few names with a mildly supportive fundamental transmission: scenario fair value rises to $72.29 from $70.36 as WACC eases to 9.2% from 9.3%, reflecting slightly better borrower cash flow and lower impairment risk from cheaper fuel. Even so, that remains far below the current $183.95 share price, and the 12-month scenario target of $127.63 suggests any benefit is mostly relative rather than absolute because value rotation can favor banks while the stock already trades on an elevated 56.6x P/E. The historical analogue is benign Australian energy-cost periods when banks benefited through credit quality and style rotation, not through major EPS reacceleration.

FIG

Figma, Inc.

-54%

Figma is a clean duration trade in this scenario: the 12-month target falls to $8.36 from $18.16 currently, with a 6-month target of $11.51, while the comps-based fair value remains an immaterial $0.35. The transmission channel is classic software multiple compression in a value/energy rotation, closely matching the 2022 software derating analogue; direct operating benefit from fossil-fuel subsidies is negligible, and FIG's -122.2% operating margin makes investors less willing to pay for long-dated growth despite strong product metrics and a 23.3% FCF margin. A rise in WACC to 9.4% from 8.8% reinforces that the scenario is about lower valuation tolerance for premium, innovation-linked software rather than a collapse in near-term revenue.